Will The Rangers Early Results Determine the Success of Celtic’s Season?

Celtic fans are currently in a sort of limbo between exciting rumours, the fact the board seem to have broken a recent pattern with quality signings, the reality that we’ve, so far, lost thirteen players and only signed two to add to a historically poor-quality squad, and extremely low expectations based on the board’s previous actions.

Kasper Hogh is follicly similar to the son of God, and we’ve been so starved of positive news that his signing was greeted with a joyful acclamation not dissimilar to that you’d expect should his divine counterpart have rocked up at Celtic Park and donned the Hoops.

Well, perhaps not quite, but it was certainly a welcome oasis in a proverbial desert of incoming transfer targets. However, we now return to the familiar position of sifting through transfer rumours, focusing on the positive ones (no matter how unlikely) and fervently praying that Hogh is a sign of things to come and not an effective end to significant spending.

I wrote on my last blog about Martin O’Neill having more power in this moment than he will ever have, as even a second-hand threat to walk away (through the likes of his friend Graham Spiers) seemed to cause enough consternation to get the Maloney and Fozzy deals done quickly after weeks of negotiations. And the flood of rumours that Martin was nearly out the door, which presaged the arrival of Hogh, didn’t seem coincidental.

A few days after I wrote the blog, I had it confirmed by a contact with a very well-placed source in the Desmond camp that it was indeed a direct intervention from Desmond that saw the Hogh deal abruptly over the line. I believe that is true for a number of reasons. I trust my contact, and I don’t believe for a second that the CEO and CFO (the axis of feeble) would have either the gumption or intention to break a record transfer fee.

What I can’t tell you for sure is whether my conjecture that it may be down to Martin exercising soft power and pressure via third parties was the reason for the divine intervention, or whether Desmond himself concluded after discussions with the manager and others that we were facing another Almatygeddon.

I’m sure even recalcitrant billionaires who seem contemptuous of their customers can also see the insanity of penny-pinching when they have an abundance of cash on hand and tens of millions of pounds within their grasp. However, I do think the principal shareholder is petty enough that he didn’t back Rodgers this time last year because there was an ongoing power struggle, and he would rather the club fail than lose that personal battle of egos. That was effectively proven by the scandalous post-Brendan exit statement he put out via official club channels.

The good news is that I believe he respects and likes the current manager, and despite his contentious relationship with the fans, that makes him far more likely to be objective, even positive, in his decision making. How far that objectivity and positivity fly in the face of historically entrenched ideas about the conduct of transfer dealings remains to be seen. There are strong rumours that we are on the cusp of another quality signing early next week. Possibly Fares Ghedjemis. However, it was only days ago that it was widely reported the Baur negotiation was complete, and only a few hundred thousand separated the parties, yet all has now gone quiet on the deal.

As much as we’re looking forward to seeing the Celts back in action on Monday, the very next thing we want to see is more quality signings, especially as the manager confirmed significant interest in two of our best players, Engels and Johnston.

It’s always worth remembering that the goal of the transfer window is to finish stronger, not to reach for the depths of last season.

Apart from agents, inflated markets, Belgian tax laws and Glaswegian weather, what else might impinge on our transfer ambitions? Many of the supporter base believe that the board’s strategy has always been to stay just one step ahead of our city rivals and whatever happens in Europe is in the lap of the Gods. The more we have heard over recent seasons about the goings on behind the scenes, as well as the deliberately vague public utterances on domestic and European targets, the more difficult it has become to refute that opinion.

So, given The Rangers started with an uninspired draw against Dundee United, how does this impact us? The supposedly calculating money men at The Rangers have seemingly been convinced to bet on staunch as a winning approach. It has definitely placated a vociferous element of their support for the moment, but after being booed off at half-time and full-time last night, and suffering an abject performance from their new Captain, is reality already sinking in for The Rangers of Midlothian?

What happens if the Lambeg isn’t loud enough, the brogues brown enough, or the sash sufficiently shiny? Staunch might keep the hordes happy, but it is not an acknowledged football tactic. If, as is now customary across the city, the close season bluster seems set to quickly implode into rancorous recriminations, what impact might that have on Martin O’Neill’s ambitions?

I believe it’s the intention of Mr Desmond to sign as few players as possible to get us through the Champions League qualifier. They will also likely try and hang onto our better players until after that point, having made that particular mistake before. Whether or not we qualify for the Champions League will likely determine the quantity and quality of recruits.

However, you can be sure that another factor will be how much of a threat they perceive our closest rivals to be. If Hearts do not appear to be overachieving again, and the most recent The Rangers revolution appears doomed to failure from early on, it is sure to influence the quality and cost of targets available for the manager to choose from.

As we’ve seen before, the board are usually just delighted to qualify for the Champions League, and have no intention of building a squad that can compete at the top level. Factor in that our route to qualifying for that competition becomes pretty forbidding from next year onwards, and McKay will be having palpitations about a wage bill which, although it apparently haunts his dreams, is very significantly below the allowable squad cost ratio. It is the failure to regularly utilise this significant financial advantage that caused a historically embarrassing European qualification failure, a self-inflicted levelling of the domestic playing field, and nearly cost us the title.

Should we hope that The Rangers manage to keep things together until decisions have been finalised on transfers, and by offering a challenge increase our chances of making signings which might see us make genuine, if almost inadvertent, progress in Europe? Or do we hope for a banter-enhancing early collapse and keep our fingers crossed that the board will continue to break established patterns of managed decline?

Responses

  1. Gerry Avatar

    Excellent piece again John . I think there’s more truth than speculation in your blog . We should be looking to ourselves and improve our squad instead of reacting to how good or bad our nearest opponents are doing . That strategy is bonkers and is a road to not only mediocrity but disaster. I think you’re on the money on more signings . Baur we thought was a done deal it seems no lessons have ben learned for last seasons near disaster of ending trophy less . Hoping against hope we start to act like a big club in every way but I won’t hold my breath. Looking forward to the unlikeliest flag day we’ve had since mr Kidds goals way back .
    HH
    Gerry Tobin

  2. Ian L Avatar

    Looking at what has been happening so far it seems that we are awaiting confirmation of players being sold before we complete any signings Duran was signed on the back of selling various players and the leaving of all of those on loan and Hogh signed only once Maeda was confirmed he was on his way. Same old Celtic got to at least break even or preferably a profit in every transfer window, well how else will DD get his annual dividend

  3. Magua Avatar

    It is a scandalous state of affairs. During what should have been a busy and active time of transfer activity, tweedledum and tweedledee fecked off on holiday for a month. This is the very definition of gross negligence. Then all this sell before we buy nonsense. We have all watched this movie before. Has Peter Lawwell really left the building?

    Hail Hail.

  4. usuallyjoyfula074f169b9 Avatar

    Great piece, as usual, and food for thought. Although we do love to see the rangers imploding at any opportunity I think you are spot on with our singing policy. One step ahead of them has been the case for a number of seasons IMO, and not likely to change, as it is undoubtedly working. They aren’t remotely interested in Euro success. For a board with zero ambition, why spend money and pay high wages on too many players who are a level above SPFL? I haven’t bought tickets for Euro games for three years. Top dollar prices to watch us play in a competition that our club, quite frankly, isn’t interested in. Why bother?

  5. Peter Irwine Avatar

    Definately think they will wait until either Johnson or Engels has been sold until they spend more money. The usual crap from these clowns who continue to hold our fanbase to ransom every year. They are not just holding us back in Scotland and European competition but throughout the Celtic supporting world where we should be capitalizing on our massive fan base by getting to the likes of the champions league knock out stages on a regular basis therefore giving us the needs to compete at that very level!

    As for the Rangers thing John, I think we have to get away from this parochial thinking of just staying ahead of them but as one of the lads said above I won’t be holding my breath!

    Peter, Derry.

    1. SonofCeltic Avatar

      I agree on all counts Peter. Thanks for your contribution.

  6. Cambs bhoy Avatar

    Another excellent article John. Agree with all of the above comments, had no expectations for signings this window, out with of qty, fit for poundstretchers. Duran and Hogh were a surprise, countered with fairytale transfer fees paid. I expect the bare minimum to be brought in to placate the clients (sorry fans), to fund further European participation and the next promotion of evergreen merchandise. The Fletcher debacle in c.2010 set the tone for the current strategy and outwith 3-4 windows has been the MO thereafter. Outwith of attending a handful of games a season (to catch up with family, friends and if we manage to cobble together a decent team and attract a decent manger (e.g. MON and Ange)), I act like a client and do not see fit to enhance the members of complacency and incompetent plc with extraordinary salaries / bonus, with which even Stevie Wonder and Ray Charles can see would never be paid in any other stratosphere. I do not expect any change to the above unless there is a >10k decrease in ST or the defacto owner and hi heid yin, departs from planet earth. Hope, blind loyalty, pride of being Celtic fan, the gift that keeps on giving out of the citadel of ethnic cleansing and that one day a group or individual will help us to achieve our global potential, like many others, brings me back, like an old boomerang. Keep up the good work and I am sure Paul John and you will keep young Patrick on his toes.

  7. the Real Anton Rogan Avatar

    Is it any coincidence that the deal for the coaching staff and Høgh were completed between golf tournaments?

    Not sure if our glorious leader is particularly fond of women’s golf, but the Womens open is now complete and there are a few days until the next competition tees off.

    Perhaps time for DD to close some signing deals while the axis of feeble are busy concluding the outgoings. That seems to be their niche.

    Based on the game last night, getting cover (other than Scales) for KT is paramount, as is the need for some creativity on the wings. I thought Yang had a decent game but Tounekti continues to frustrate and eventually, the up and coming whippersnapper that is Forrest, will run out of legs.

    Engels looks as if he has already packed up but AJ cannot be allowed to leave until after CL qualifying and his replacement is in place.

    I fear that you may be accurate in your assumptions John. We will do just enough to keep our noses in front in the SPFL while continuing our slide down the slippery table of coefficient.

    1. SonofCeltic Avatar

      Between golf tournaments?!! Wow! That’s not an angle I had considered. I don’t even doubt it!😱

      1. the Real Anton Rogan Avatar

        I may or may not be accurate 😅

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